Aston Villa who hold the home advantage and superior xG profile. Both teams have Champions League ambitions, but Forest’s leaky away defence could undo them here.

⚽️ Recent Form
Aston Villa: WWWWWW (All comps) | DDWLWW (PL)

14-match unbeaten run at home

Scored in 11 straight home league games

Nottingham Forest: DWWWWW (All comps) | LLDWWW (PL)

3 straight league wins

Scored in 12 of 15 away games

Conceded 2+ goals in last 4 away matches

🏟️ Villa Park Factor
Villa have not lost at home in the league since August.

Average 1.67 goals for and 1.20 against per home game.

Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of their home matches.

📊 Forest Away Metrics
1.73 goals scored per away game (strong).

But: 1.67 goals conceded per away game.

4 straight away games conceding 2+.

Clean sheet in only 33% of away matches.

🔎 Head-to-Head (Last 5)
Aston Villa Wins: 2

Forest Wins: 2

Draws: 1

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Over 2.5 goals in 3 of those 5.

🔥 Players to Watch
Aston Villa: Marco Asensio – 6 goals in last 7 home matches.

Forest: Anthony Elanga – scoring key goals, including the winner vs. Man Utd.

📉 Weaknesses
Villa: Vulnerable to counters and aerial duels (Forest strength).

Forest: Weak at keeping possession, often caught offside.

💡 Betting Picks
Main Bet:
✅ Aston Villa to Win @ 1.99

Strong at home, Forest shaky away defensively.

Value Bet:
✅ Aston Villa Win & BTTS @ 3.75+

Villa likely to score multiple, Forest dangerous on the break.

Goals Market:
✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80–1.90

Both teams averaging ~3.1 total goals per match this season.

Anytime Goalscorer:
✅ Marco Asensio @ 3.00+

Form player, especially at Villa Park.

🧮 Score Prediction
Aston Villa 2-1 Nottingham Forest

Backing the hosts to edge it, but Forest to find the net.