Premier League | Saturday 5 April 2025 | 12:30 UK

Odds:

Everton Win @ 5.26 → Implied probability: 19.0%

Draw @ 3.46 → 28.9%

Arsenal Win @ 1.77 → 56.5%

🔥 Recent Form Snapshot
Everton (All Comps):
🔁 D-D-D-D-L
⚠️ Winless in 5 (W0 D4 L1)
📉 Drawn last 3 at home
🛡️ Scored in 7 straight but no clean sheets in 7

Arsenal (All Comps):
✅ W-W-D-D
🚀 Unbeaten in last 10 away
🧱 Best defence in league (25 goals conceded in 30)
⚠️ Champions League clash vs Real Madrid midweek

📊 True Win Probabilities vs Market
🔴 Arsenal Win @ 1.77 (Implied: 56.5%)
Arsenal away PPG: 1.80

Everton home PPG: 1.27

Arsenal undefeated in 10 away league games

Everton 3 wins in last 10 at home

📈 Model Estimate: ~64%
✅ Verdict: Value on Arsenal win. Even with minor rotation, they control games well and Everton’s xG threat is low.

🔵 Everton Win @ 5.26 (Implied: 19.0%)
Just 4 wins in 15 at Goodison

Key absentees: Calvert-Lewin, McNeil, Mangala

Haven’t beaten a top-six side this season

Failed to score in 40% of home games

📉 Model Estimate: ~13%
❌ Verdict: No value. Price reflects longshot reality.

🤝 Draw @ 3.46 (Implied: 28.9%)
Everton drawn 4 of last 5

Arsenal drawn 2 of last 3 away

Arsenal may manage energy ahead of UCL clash

📊 Model Estimate: ~23%
⚠️ Verdict: Slightly overpriced. Not strong enough to back outright, but a live result scenario.

⚽️ Goal Market Breakdown
✅ Under 2.5 Goals @ ~1.80

Last 4 Everton games all under

Arsenal away games: 9 of last 11 under

Everton average goals per game: 2.30 (league-low)

➡️ Verdict: Strong lean to Under. Could be a cagey, slow-paced early kickoff.

❌ Over 2.5 Goals @ ~2.00

Arsenal may rotate; Everton lack cutting edge

Under hit in 4 of last 5 Arsenal away

➡️ Verdict: Fade — too many red flags for goalfest.

✅ Arsenal to score 1+ goal

Scored in 12 of 15 away

Everton no clean sheets in 7

➡️ Verdict: Solid parlay anchor

🧠 Prop Angles
Bukayo Saka Anytime Goal or Assist @ ~2.10
➕ 19 G+A in league this season
➕ Fit again and likely to start pre-Real
✅ Verdict: Best player-based angle

Arsenal Clean Sheet @ ~2.60
➕ Best defence in the league
➕ Everton failed to score in 40% of home games
✅ Verdict: Worth a look

Arsenal Win + Under 3.5 Goals @ ~2.80
➕ Covers most realistic outcomes (0-1, 0-2, 1-2)
✅ Verdict: Strong combo value

🎯 Correct Score Leans
0-1 Arsenal @ ~7.50
➕ Low-scoring pattern + clean sheet angle

0-2 Arsenal @ ~9.50
➕ Classic control game

1-1 Draw @ ~7.00
➕ Fair backup if Gunners rotate

📈 Betting Summary
Market Verdict
Arsenal Win @ 1.77 ✅ Good value — form, quality edge
Everton Win @ 5.26 ❌ Avoid — longshot, little threat
Draw @ 3.46 ⚠️ Slightly overpriced
Under 2.5 Goals @ ~1.80 ✅ Strong lean — slow tempo expected
Arsenal Clean Sheet @ ~2.60 ✅ Good defensive value
Saka G/A @ ~2.10 ✅ Best player prop
Arsenal Win + Under 3.5 @ ~2.80 ✅ Smart combo
Correct Score: 0-1, 0-2, 1-1 🎯 Most plausible outcomes