Premier League | Thursday 3 April 2025 | 20:00 UK

Odds:

Chelsea Win @ 1.70 → Implied probability: 58.8%

Draw @ 4.50 → 22.2%

Tottenham Win @ 4.80 → 20.8%

🔥 Recent Form Snapshot
Chelsea (All Comps):
✅ W-W-W-W-L
🏟️ 4 straight home wins
🧱 Back-to-back home clean sheets
📈 Only 3 losses in last 16 across all comps
🔄 Palmer and Jackson back, attacking options strong

Tottenham (All Comps):
❌ L-D-W-L-D-L
🆘 4 losses in last 6 games
🚫 Failed to score in 3 of last 5 away
📉 Just 2 wins in last 9 league games
🧳 Only 1 league win at Stamford Bridge since 1990

📊 True Win Probabilities vs Market
🔵 Chelsea Win @ 1.70 (Implied: 58.8%)
Home win rate: 64% last 14

Spurs away loss rate: 57% (8 of 14)

Chelsea unbeaten in 17 of last 18 vs Spurs

Spurs: 10 points from 9 London derbies this season

📈 Model Estimate: ~68%
✅ Verdict: Good value. Should be priced closer to 1.50. Single or parlay core.

⚪ Tottenham Win @ 4.80 (Implied: 20.8%)
Just 1 win in last 11 away league games

Never beaten Chelsea under Postecoglou (0/3)

1 win at Stamford Bridge since 1990

Defensive issues: conceded in 11 of last 13

📉 Model Estimate: ~12%
❌ Verdict: No value — and historically a nightmare fixture.

🤝 Draw @ 4.50 (Implied: 22.2%)
Only 1 draw in last 10 Chelsea home games

Only 1 draw in last 6 H2H

Spurs draw rate: 14% of matches

📊 Model Estimate: ~20%
⚠️ Verdict: Slight value if looking for a longshot hedge — but not ideal in this spot.

⚽️ Goal Market Breakdown
✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80

Chelsea have scored 2+ in 8 of last 9 home games vs Spurs

Spurs conceded 2+ in 5 of last 6 league losses
➡️ Verdict: Form + matchup lean Over — good for SGPs or singles

⚠️ Both Teams to Score – Yes @ ~1.80

Both teams scored in 4 of last 6 H2H

Spurs scored in only 2 of last 5 away
➡️ Verdict: Lean Yes, but shaky due to Spurs inconsistency

✅ Chelsea to score 2+ Goals

Hit in 7 of last 9 home games

Spurs conceded 2+ in 9 of 14 away league games
➡️ Verdict: One of the best props on the board

🧠 Prop Angles
Palmer to score or assist @ ~1.85
➕ 16 G+A in 18 starts
➕ Missed last match but fully fit
✅ Verdict: Top individual angle

Chelsea Win to Nil @ ~3.00
➕ Spurs failed to score in 3 of last 5 away
➕ Chelsea kept clean sheets in 3 of last 4 home
✅ Verdict: Smart combo value

Chelsea -1 Handicap @ ~2.90
➕ Covered in last 2 home wins vs Spurs (2-0, 4-0)
✅ Verdict: Good alt line for boosted payout

🎯 Correct Score Leans
2-0 Chelsea @ ~9.00
➕ Most probable by model
➕ Matches recent trends

3-1 Chelsea @ ~14.00
➕ Covers Spurs sneaky goal, but Blues dominant

2-1 Chelsea @ ~9.50
➕ Tight London derby, possible late edge

📈 Betting Summary
Market Verdict
Chelsea Win @ 1.70 ✅ Value – strong form + H2H edge
Tottenham Win @ 4.80 ❌ Not playable – poor away + history
Draw @ 4.50 ⚠️ Slight value – but form says no
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 ✅ Strong lean – matchup-driven
BTTS – Yes @ ~1.80 ⚠️ Mixed – slight lean to yes
Chelsea to score 2+ ✅ One of strongest props
Chelsea win to nil @ 3.00 ✅ Great combo angle
Palmer goal/assist @ 1.85 ✅ Individual value prop
Correct Score: 2-0, 3-1 🎯 Realistic longshots