Odds:

Liverpool Win @ 1.51 → Implied probability: 66.2%

Draw @ 4.50 → 22.2%

Everton Win @ 8.00 → 12.5%

🔥 Recent Form Snapshot
Liverpool (All Comps):
✅ W-W-W | 25-match unbeaten run in the league
✅ Scored 2+ in 12 straight home league games
✅ 4 straight home wins | 93% home scoring rate
✅ Undefeated in 26 Anfield derbies (with fans)

Everton (All Comps):
➖ D-D-D-D | 4 straight draws
✅ Unbeaten in last 9 league matches
✅ Scored in 9 straight league games
⚠️ Just 3 away wins all season (21%)
📉 Moyes is 0-19 away to Liverpool in PL history

📊 True Win Probabilities vs Market
🔴 Liverpool Win @ 1.51 (Implied: 66.2%)
Home win rate this season: 79% (11 of 14)

Scored 2+ in 100% of last 9 games

Everton concede 1.29 goals/game away

Everton haven’t beaten Liverpool at Anfield (with fans) since 1999

📈 Model Estimation: ~73% win probability
✅ Verdict: Value present. Price should be closer to 1.37. Core parlay leg or high-confidence single.

🔵 Everton Win @ 8.00 (Implied: 12.5%)
3 away wins all season (3/14 = 21%)

Conceded in 71% of away games

Moyes winless in 19 PL visits to Anfield

Liverpool haven’t lost at home in PL this season

📉 Model Estimation: ~6%
❌ Verdict: Not playable. Overstated chance, even at 8.00.

⚖️ Draw @ 4.50 (Implied: 22.2%)
Everton draw rate: 45% of matches

Liverpool draw rate: 24% overall, 14% at home

Everton have drawn 4 straight

February’s derby ended 2-2

📊 Model Estimate: ~20%
⚠️ Verdict: Fair price, no edge. Avoid or use as hedge in scorelines.

⚽️ Goal Market Breakdown
✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80

Hit in 64% of Liverpool’s home games

Everton’s last 5 away matches averaged 2.07 goals

Liverpool average 2.21 GF per home match
➡️ Verdict: Playable. Liverpool could cover it solo.

✅ Liverpool to Score 2+ Goals

Have done so in 12 straight at home

Everton concede 1.29 goals/game away
➡️ Verdict: Strong bet, excellent for builders or singles

⚠️ Both Teams to Score – No

Everton have scored in 9 straight

Liverpool kept just 5 clean sheets at home
➡️ Verdict: Slight lean BTTS – Yes due to Everton's recent attacking form

🧠 Prop Angles
Liverpool to win to nil @ ~2.40
➕ Covered in 6 of 11 home wins
➕ Everton failed to score in 43% of away matches
✅ Verdict: Good builder combo

Salah to score anytime @ ~2.00
➕ Top scorer, 27 goals this season
➕ Scored in 3 of last 4 vs Everton
✅ Verdict: One of the best player props on the board

Over 9.5 corners @ ~1.90
➕ Both teams average ~10 corners/game
➕ Hit in 57%+ of both teams’ matches
✅ Verdict: High hit rate, consistent trend

🎯 Correct Score Leans
3-1 Liverpool @ ~11.0
➕ Fits form and expected goals model

2-0 Liverpool @ ~8.00
➕ Everton goal rate is low away from home

2-1 Liverpool @ ~9.00
➕ Covers tighter derby angle

📈 Betting Summary
Market Verdict
Liverpool Win @ 1.51 ✅ Solid value – strong home form
Everton Win @ 8.00 ❌ Not worth it – long odds for a reason
Draw @ 4.50 ⚠️ No edge – fair but flat
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 ✅ Playable on Liverpool's attack
BTTS – Yes ⚠️ Slight lean – depends on setup
Liverpool to score 2+ ✅ One of the best angles
Salah Anytime Scorer ✅ Reliable prop
Over 9.5 Corners ✅ Trend-backed
Correct Score 3-1 🎯 Strong lean – realistic payout