Bournemouth Win @ 1.42 → Implied probability: 70.4%

Draw @ 5.20 → 19.2%

Ipswich Win @ 8.00 → 12.5%

🔥 Recent Form Snapshot
Bournemouth (All Comps):
W-D-L-L-D-L

1 win in last 6 (only via penalties)

3 straight home losses

But still averaging 2.0 goals per game in last 8

Ipswich (All Comps):
L-L-L-L-L

10 league games without a win

8 losses in last 9

Conceded 4 goals in 3 of last 6

Form edge: Neither team in top shape, but Bournemouth’s floor is higher than Ipswich’s ceiling right now.

📊 True Win Probabilities vs Market
Bournemouth Win @ 1.42 (Implied: 70.4%)
Home win rate: 43% this season

Ipswich away loss rate: 57%

Ipswich have conceded in 13 of 14 away games, often 2+ goals

Bournemouth won the reverse fixture 2-1 away

📈 Model estimate: ~65% win probability
➡️ Verdict: Slightly overpriced. Fair, not value at 1.42 — but playable in multis or live.

Ipswich Win @ 8.00 (Implied: 12.5%)
They haven’t won since December

Have no clean sheets in 12 away games

Missing key creators (Chaplin, Szmodics)

Only 3 league wins all season

📉 Model estimate: ~7%
➡️ Verdict: Still no value, even at 8.00.

Draw @ 5.20 (Implied: 19.2%)
Bournemouth have drawn 3 of 14 home games

Ipswich have drawn 4 of 14 away

Styles don't lean cagey; both vulnerable

📊 Model: ~17%
➡️ Verdict: Slight value against the draw — better to bet on goals or win markets.

⚽️ Goal Market Breakdown
✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57
Bournemouth: Last 3 matches over 2.5

Ipswich: 7 of last 10 games over 2.5

H2H: Last meeting was 2-1

Ipswich concede 2.14 goals/game away

➡️ Verdict: Strong lean. Good base play.

✅ Bournemouth to Score 2+ Goals
Hit 2+ goals in 5 of last 8 matches

Ipswich have conceded 2+ in 8 of last 10

Ipswich have no clean sheet in 12 straight away

➡️ Verdict: Great single or bet builder leg

⚠️ Both Teams to Score – Yes @ ~1.95
Ipswich have scored in 10 of 14 away matches

Bournemouth have 1 clean sheet in last 7

100% BTTS in H2H (5-game sample)

➡️ Verdict: Riskier, but decent value in context

🧠 Prop Angle: Late Goal Betting
Bournemouth have scored 35% of their goals after 75th min

Ipswich concede often late due to fatigue/lack of depth

⏱ Bet angle: “Goal after 75:00” OR “Bournemouth to score in second half” – both good value.

🎯 Correct Score Lean
Bournemouth 2-1 @ ~8.50
– Reflects expected edge, but with defensive lapse

Bournemouth 3-1 @ ~13.0
– If Bournemouth actually click

➡️ Small stakes punts only

📈 Betting Summary
Market Verdict
Bournemouth Win @ 1.42 ✅ Safe leg for accas or live
Ipswich Win @ 8.00 ❌ No value even at long odds
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 ✅ Strong lean
BTTS – Yes @ ~1.95 🤔 Risky, but trends support
Bournemouth to Score 2+ ✅ Sharp standalone bet
Goal after 75 mins 🔥 Match dynamic favors it
Correct Score 2-1 / 3-1 🎯 Longshot ideas