Brighton to win @ 2.20 → 45.45% implied probability

Draw @ 3.80 → 26.32%

Aston Villa to win @ 3.50 → 28.57%

⚔️ Form Overview
Brighton Last 10 at Home
W-W-W-D-L-W-W-D-L-W

6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses → 60% win rate

Aston Villa Last 10 Away
W-W-W-L-D-W-L-D-W-L

5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses → 50% win rate

So, we’ve got two in-form teams here. Brighton are unbeaten in 8 straight in 90 mins, but Villa are on a 5-match win streak in all comps and have been racking up big away wins.

🧮 Real Win Probabilities vs Implied Odds
Brighton Win @ 2.20 (Implied: 45.45%)
Home win rate: 60%

Villa away loss rate: 30%

Combined average: ~45%

Fairly priced, with a touch of value if you trust Brighton to bounce back emotionally after the FA Cup heartbreak.

Verdict: Slight value, but not much. Pass or use in combo.

Aston Villa Win @ 3.50 (Implied: 28.57%)
Away win rate: 50%

Brighton home loss rate: 20%

Average = 35%

Market underrates Villa. They’re deeper, healthier, and they’ve lost once in 8 against Brighton. The Seagulls are missing 10 first-team players — and their bench is paper thin.

Villa’s physical style and quick transitions are a bad match for Brighton’s tired legs.

Verdict: Clear value. Back Villa at anything over 3.0.

Draw @ 3.80 (Implied: 26.32%)
Brighton home draws: 2 in last 10

Villa away draws: 2 in last 10

Combined = 20% draw frequency

This is actually a bit overpriced. Neither side draws often — both go for wins.

Verdict: Not the worst option, but low probability based on styles. Skip.

🔥 Other Market Angles
✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ ~1.85
Brighton games: 6 straight overs

Villa: 8 of last 10 have hit over 2.5

H2H: 4 of last 5 meetings went over

Both sides play open, vertical football. Brighton press, Villa counter. Recipe for chaos.

Verdict: Strong value, even at sub-evens.

✅ Both Teams to Score – Yes @ ~1.72
BTTS in 6 of last 7 H2H meetings

Both teams average 1.6+ goals scored per game

Brighton have only 1 clean sheet in last 10

Villa have scored in 10 straight

Verdict: One of the best base plays here.

🎯 Correct Score Punt: Villa 2-1 @ ~11.0
Brighton vulnerable late in games

Villa clinical on the break

Repeat of scoreline in their last win at AMEX

Verdict: For small stake, solid payout potential.

⚖️ Market Efficiency Summary
Market Bookie Win % Historical Estimate Verdict
Brighton Win 45.45% ~45% Fair
Draw 26.32% ~20% Overpriced
Villa Win 28.57% ~35% Value ✅
🧵 Final Word
Villa are under the radar here. The market is leaning too hard on Brighton’s name and recent unbeaten run, without weighing the injury crisis, minutes in legs from FA Cup extra time, and Villa’s strong away form.

With Villa fresher and fully fit, and Brighton scrambling to patch a starting XI, this is a spot where the underdog tag doesn’t match the matchup.

💸 Best Bets Recap
✅ Aston Villa to Win @ 3.50 – Value bet

✅ BTTS – Yes @ 1.72 – Trends and form support it

✅ Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 – Two attacking teams, no reason for a cagey game

🎯 Villa 2-1 @ 11.0 – Correct score angle