This is the biggest mismatch of the round — on paper and in price.

Man City to win @ 1.20 → 83.33% implied win probability

Draw @ 8.5 → 11.76%

Leicester to win @ 16.00 → 6.25%

City are at home, chasing Champions League qualification, and up against a Leicester side that looks like it’s already packed for the Championship. But as always — we're not here to state the obvious. We’re here to find value.

🧮 Historical vs Implied Win Rates
Man City Home Form (Last 10): WDWLLWWDWW
Wins: 6 → 60% win rate

Leicester Away Form (Last 10): LLLLLLWLLL
Losses: 8 → 80% loss rate

That average gives us a 70% estimated win rate for City, but the market is pricing this up at 83.33%, which tells you: there is no value in the match result odds.

But that doesn't mean there's nothing here.

🧠 The Real Picture: How Bad Are Leicester?
6 straight losses in the Premier League

0 goals scored in those 6 games

16 goals conceded in that stretch

35 goals conceded in 14 away matches

Worst away defence in the league

Leicester are bottom-tier in morale, defending, and attacking. Ruud van Nistelrooy looks out of ideas. They’ve gone 540 minutes without a goal. Against City? At the Etihad? That’s not just bad — it’s fatal.

Even without Haaland, this is a training exercise for Guardiola’s side.

🔎 Where's the Betting Value?
❌ City to Win @ 1.20
Implied: 83.33% | Realistic: 70%–75%
You're betting at peak price. Unless you're throwing it in an acca, this isn't worth it.

✅ City to Win to Nil @ ~1.80
Leicester haven’t scored in 6 straight

City have won to nil in 2 of last 4 wins

Leicester have 0 attacking presence and rely on Vardy, who’s 37

Verdict: Strong value. If City score early, Leicester fold. They don’t have the confidence to come back.

✅ Under 0.5 Leicester Goals @ ~2.25
Same angle, slightly better price depending on the bookie

City’s defence can switch off, but Leicester simply have nothing going forward

Verdict: If you don’t trust City’s backline to stay clean, go this route.

⚠️ Over 3.5 Total Goals @ ~1.75
7 of the last 10 H2Hs at the Etihad have gone over 3.5

Leicester have conceded 2+ goals in 13 of their last 15

Even without Haaland, City have Marmoush, Doku, De Bruyne, Savinho, and a red-hot O’Reilly

Verdict: If City turn up, this could get messy. Leicester are conceding big regularly.

💣 Correct Score: Man City 3-0 @ 8.75
Most predicted result via models

Matches Leicester’s recent losing pattern

Clean sheet + comfortable margin = value in a one-sided match

🧊 What Not to Bet
❌ Leicester win or draw: They're cooked. Confidence gone. No system. No momentum. Don’t be seduced by big odds.

❌ Any Leicester goal-related bets: This is a team that can’t score against anyone, let alone City at the Etihad.

💡 Best Bets Recap
✅ City to Win to Nil @ ~1.80

✅ Leicester Under 0.5 Goals @ ~2.25

✅ Over 3.5 Goals @ ~1.75

🔁 Correct Score: City 3-0 @ 8.75 – High reward for a likely scenario

Final Word:
There’s no fairytale here. City may be without Haaland, but Leicester are without a functioning team. This is about damage control for the visitors — and a momentum builder for Pep. Don’t chase the crazy upsets. Stick to the methodical angles: clean sheet, goal lines, and the right correct score play.