Arsenal host Fulham on Tuesday night at the Emirates, with the bookies making the Gunners strong favourites at 1.48. That’s an implied win probability of 67.57%. Fulham are priced at 9.0 (11.11%), and the draw sits at 4.5 (22.22%).

So where's the value — if any — in those odds?

Let’s run the numbers.

Recent Form vs Market Odds
Arsenal Home Form (Last 10): WLWDWWDWWW
7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss

70% win rate at home

Fulham Away Form (Last 10): LWWWLDWDDW
5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses

20% loss rate away

You might think the average of Arsenal’s 70% home win rate and Fulham’s 20% away loss rate = 45% — but that's a crude simplification. In reality, these stats don’t fully cancel each other out. Fulham’s strong away form complicates things, and the draw potential is higher than market odds suggest.

Let’s look at each outcome.

Arsenal to Win @ 1.48 (Implied 67.57%)
Historical Case: Arsenal win 70% of home games. Fulham only lose 20% of away games — which shows they’re hard to beat on the road, even if they don’t always win.

Averaging 70% and 20% gives us a basic 45% marker, but that’s too rough. The smarter view: Arsenal's home dominance outweighs Fulham’s resilience, but the value is thin at 1.48. You're betting on a near best-case Arsenal performance just to break even.

Verdict: Pass. There’s no margin here. The price is efficient, if not slightly overvalued.

Draw @ 4.5 (Implied 22.22%)
Fulham are unbeaten in 8 of their last 10 away games. Arsenal have drawn 3 of their last 7 across all comps, and haven't beaten Fulham in their last three head-to-heads (D2, L1).

Historical Case:

Arsenal have drawn 2 of their last 10 at home.

Fulham have drawn 3 of their last 10 away.

That’s 25% and 30% draw rates respectively — average that and you’re looking at ~27.5% draw potential.

Market gives just 22.22%.

Verdict: Value is here. There’s a margin. Fulham are organized and have a recent record of frustrating Arsenal. This isn't a crazy pick.

Fulham to Win @ 9.0 (Implied 11.11%)
Fulham have won 5 of their last 6 away games, including wins at tough grounds. Arsenal haven't exactly been watertight at home — they’ve conceded in 4 of their last 5 league games at the Emirates.

Still, Arsenal losing at home is rare — just 1 loss in their last 10 there.

Historical Case:

Arsenal lose 10% of home games (1 in 10).

Fulham win 50% of away games (5 in 10).

Even if we meet halfway, you get around 30% potential — far above the 11.11% implied by odds.

Verdict: High-risk, high-reward. If you’re looking for big value in an underdog play, this is worth a small stake. Fulham are no mugs away from home.

Key Takeaway: Bet Where the Market Undervalues Reality
If we want to profit long-term, we need to back outcomes where the actual chance of happening is higher than the implied chance in the odds.

In this matchup:

Arsenal to win? Probably, but the value's baked in.

Draw? More likely than the market suggests.

Fulham win? Rare, but odds are too big to ignore.

Recommended Bets
✅ Draw @ 4.5 – Value based on both teams' recent draw trends and H2H.

🔁 Lay Arsenal @ 1.48 (if using exchanges) – Fulham have tools to frustrate.

💣 Small stake: Fulham win @ 9.0 – For those chasing high upside.